It’s Still The Economy, Stupid
Unpacking the media's election economic misapprehensions in my latest piece on The Commons at American Compass
This story was originally published on The Commons at American Compass. Link to the full piece is here.
Below is the opening of my latest piece, about what the media and Democrats got wrong about the economy, and why Biden’s “strongest economy in the world” ended up being a benefit for Trump, not Harris. There’s some fascinating headlines to revisit in the light of day, as well as some prophetic survey data from American Compass about how people felt about the economy on the eve of the election.
For those who don’t know, while I moonlight as a media critic, my actual job is as managing editor at American Compass, an economic-focused think tank. If you have questions or want to submit something for The Commons (a conversational hub ranging political issues, which I manage), drop me a line.
Following a heated election, it can be easy to forget the kinds of ideas that were treated as gospel truth in the lead-up to the vote, as either the warm glow of victory or the bitter taste of defeat reset the minds of the electoral combatants and the commentariat class.
One such narrative appears to have quickly slipped from public consciousness; the idea that Vice President Harris would be buoyed by the strong economy created by her and President Joe Biden. Voters, after all, vote with their wallets, so Harris running on what was dubbed “the strongest economy in the world” would be a huge boost to her campaign in a razor-tight election.
Given the amnestic effect elections have, it’s worth revisiting just how strong this claim was. A quick refresher:
An Axios headline a week out from election day read: “New economic data could aid Democrats’ case in election.”
Yahoo Finance upgraded Biden’s economic grade to an A as it “overcame” inflation.
CNN, a week before the election, published the headline, “America’s economy just achieved the rare feat of a soft landing,” dutifully repeating a White House staffer claim that “annual average economic growth during the Biden-Harris administration has been stronger than any administration this century.”
Reuters cautioned that we weren’t yet appreciating the economy Biden created in a piece that opened with “U.S. President Joe Biden may not have gotten much credit politically for the thousands of grants and public investments his administration showered across the country, with airport or road projects in places like South Carolina and Wyoming…”
A Politico headline announced: “’Surprisingly strong’: Economy shows robust growth in final report before election.”
These headlines all redounded to Harris’s benefit. Another Politico piece declared: “Job growth blows away expectations, in boost for Harris.” MSNBC didn’t mince words: a headline declared, “Economic growth remained strong over the summer, boosting Harris,” followed by a sub-head hyping, “the combination of healthy growth, low unemployment, shrinking inflation, record highs on Wall Street, and low gas prices paints a striking picture.” The New York Times crowed, “Jobs Report Adds to Economic Momentum for Harris.”
There were plenty of other headlines and of course Twitter commentary. Harris tried to turn it to her advantage. Biden even weighed in during the closing days of the campaign to repeat the “strongest economy” claim.
The claim wasn’t invented out of thin air. The topline numbers of the U.S. economy were all flashing green. Wages were up. The stock market was booming. Inflation had cooled. A new (and part of a slew of eventual downwardly revised) jobs report was strikingly strong. Economists were seemingly unanimous: Harris’s plan, based on Biden’s success, would keep these seemingly good times going.
And then, Harris lost. And not in a squeaker—Trump won not just the Electoral College but also the popular vote. The narrative imploded.
So what gives? Did the timeless economic wisdom take an election cycle off? How did Harris run on such a seemingly strong economy and lose so thoroughly?
Keep reading here: https://americancompass.org/its-still-the-economy-stupid/